Do people find use of the terms "variant" & "emerge" confuse people? Many friends and neighbors seem to thing a "variant" "emerging" means the virus has shape-changed, has grown poodle ears or something. They don't tend to think in terms of a pre-existing swarm of variants where one or another is doing best in terms of spread.
Thank you. It starts with mutation - when the virus genome is replicated, errors are made. Each new error starts a new lineage. Variants are those that are recognized ... when we say "Delta", we know of it because it emerged from the swarm of lineages.
James, you make the statement "The Delta variant, for example, was first detected in late 2020, long before any COVID-19 vaccination program." But statistician Matthew Crawford makes the claim that all of the variants occurred in areas where vaccine trials were occurring:
"... let us examine the specifics of the variants that have spread and caused trouble.
The Alpha variant emerged in the UK in October, which was when Oxford-AstraZeneca was holding vaccine trials there.
The Beta variant emerged in South Africa, and was first detected in December, 2020, at the tail end of trial periods for both Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines. This variant carries three mutations in the spike protein.
The Gamma variant was first detected in Japan, but soon after in Brazil, making the origin a little harder to determine. But since Japan has had far lower viral spread than Brazil, it makes the most sense that Brazil was the source. Both Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer trialed their vaccines in Brazil.
The Delta variant was first detected in India in October, 2020. India hosted numerous vaccine trials including one for Oxford-AstraZeneca and one for Covishield.
It is noteworthy that variants of interest did not emerge during the early stages of the pandemic, despite mass spread of SARS-CoV-2 around the globe. That's a pretty huge sample size of unvaccinated people. But those that have emerged did so in geographies where vaccine trials were held---that is several variants from a far smaller genetic pool."
Mathew is an astute observer and I love his work. I would not doubt that the variants rose in frequency to escape the vaccine (vaccine pressure, i.e., antigenic shift), certainly consistent with the plummeting efficacy against new variants. Natural selection doesn't care where the genetic variation starts - in a population or via migration, it's all the same.
Beyond my article above, I have often wondered whether the same variants could have popped up in multiple places, or similar ones, which might then have just melded into one "delta population" upon mingling. I wondered about that after finding out that a "delta strain" emerged in one of the SE Asian nations that had essentially no COVID at all prior to vaccination.
It was noteworthy to me that the variants that did emerge during trials were specifically in the locale of the AZ trials, so I've wondered if that vaccine might have been the best at allowing for mucosal infection that trended into the body where the vaccine-induced antibodies began to filter. A vaccine that does that task well enough does make the vaccinated into a variant factory.
Wouldn't it be wonderful if authorities helped us figure this out instead of muddying all the data so quickly?
We did see convergent evolution of the same variants popping up during lockdown - which suggests strong selection. I'll read your article in detail and learn much, I'm sure. Re: "authorities"... they abdicated that role and I refuse to recognize them as such. "Flop-eared public servants" might be better. Did you see Fauci was caught mingling maskless?
Do people find use of the terms "variant" & "emerge" confuse people? Many friends and neighbors seem to thing a "variant" "emerging" means the virus has shape-changed, has grown poodle ears or something. They don't tend to think in terms of a pre-existing swarm of variants where one or another is doing best in terms of spread.
Thank you. It starts with mutation - when the virus genome is replicated, errors are made. Each new error starts a new lineage. Variants are those that are recognized ... when we say "Delta", we know of it because it emerged from the swarm of lineages.
James, you make the statement "The Delta variant, for example, was first detected in late 2020, long before any COVID-19 vaccination program." But statistician Matthew Crawford makes the claim that all of the variants occurred in areas where vaccine trials were occurring:
"... let us examine the specifics of the variants that have spread and caused trouble.
The Alpha variant emerged in the UK in October, which was when Oxford-AstraZeneca was holding vaccine trials there.
The Beta variant emerged in South Africa, and was first detected in December, 2020, at the tail end of trial periods for both Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines. This variant carries three mutations in the spike protein.
The Gamma variant was first detected in Japan, but soon after in Brazil, making the origin a little harder to determine. But since Japan has had far lower viral spread than Brazil, it makes the most sense that Brazil was the source. Both Oxford-AstraZeneca and Pfizer trialed their vaccines in Brazil.
The Delta variant was first detected in India in October, 2020. India hosted numerous vaccine trials including one for Oxford-AstraZeneca and one for Covishield.
It is noteworthy that variants of interest did not emerge during the early stages of the pandemic, despite mass spread of SARS-CoV-2 around the globe. That's a pretty huge sample size of unvaccinated people. But those that have emerged did so in geographies where vaccine trials were held---that is several variants from a far smaller genetic pool."
Source: https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/variant-roulette-evolution-and-immunity
I'm curious for your take on this?
Mathew is an astute observer and I love his work. I would not doubt that the variants rose in frequency to escape the vaccine (vaccine pressure, i.e., antigenic shift), certainly consistent with the plummeting efficacy against new variants. Natural selection doesn't care where the genetic variation starts - in a population or via migration, it's all the same.
Beyond my article above, I have often wondered whether the same variants could have popped up in multiple places, or similar ones, which might then have just melded into one "delta population" upon mingling. I wondered about that after finding out that a "delta strain" emerged in one of the SE Asian nations that had essentially no COVID at all prior to vaccination.
It was noteworthy to me that the variants that did emerge during trials were specifically in the locale of the AZ trials, so I've wondered if that vaccine might have been the best at allowing for mucosal infection that trended into the body where the vaccine-induced antibodies began to filter. A vaccine that does that task well enough does make the vaccinated into a variant factory.
Wouldn't it be wonderful if authorities helped us figure this out instead of muddying all the data so quickly?
We did see convergent evolution of the same variants popping up during lockdown - which suggests strong selection. I'll read your article in detail and learn much, I'm sure. Re: "authorities"... they abdicated that role and I refuse to recognize them as such. "Flop-eared public servants" might be better. Did you see Fauci was caught mingling maskless?