Why "Flatten the Curve" and Not Treating People for Respiratory Infections Created Fauci's Incubators Killed Millions and Led to New Variants

Had SARS-CoV-2 followed Farr's law would have left us with a memory of a bad influenza season - or some say, not that bad.

Biology has few laws. One of them, Farr’s Law, is violated when we try to control the spread of infectious diseases. Given the unpredictability of complex, non-linear dynamics, chaos could result…

When we think about the effects of non-sterilizing vaccination in herds of animals, we have to realize that chickens given respiratory virus vaccines are not given early, effective antiviral and other treatments for respiratory ailments.

By fighting against early, effective treatments, Fauci and company treated the human population like a herd of animals.

Then, in their mantra “Flatten the Curve,” Fauci et al. made certain to defeat Farr’s Law. In Fauci's own words, the real reasons for Flattening the Curve were to prevent too many people from acquiring immunity through natural infection and, to a lesser degree, to protect hospitals that had received billions in training funds to be ready for pandemics after Ebola.

Farr’s Law

Named after William Farr, a British epidemiologist in the 19th century, Farr’s Law describes the pattern of many epidemics, including their rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern, which a bell-shaped curve can often approximate. Farr noticed this pattern during the smallpox epidemic. This law suggests that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can often be approximated by a normal distribution, mathematically expressing how the number of new cases increases rapidly and then declines at a similar rate.

In the context of infectious diseases, the pattern of an exponential rise in infections followed by a subsequent drop is commonly referred to as an "epidemic curve." This term is used to describe the graphical representation of the number of new cases over time during an outbreak of an infectious disease. The shape of the curve can provide insights into the dynamics of the disease's spread.

The typical epidemic curve for an infectious disease that spreads rapidly and then decreases can often be described as having the following phases:

1. Initial Phase: There are only a few cases in this phase, which could potentially increase slowly as the disease begins to find susceptible hosts.

2. Exponential Growth Phase: During this phase, the number of new cases increases rapidly—often exponentially—as each infected individual transmits the infection to multiple others.

3. Peak Phase: This is the point at which the rate of new cases reaches its maximum. It does not necessarily mean that the number of cases has stopped increasing, but the rate of increase has begun to slow down.

4. Decline Phase: After the peak, the number of new cases begins to decrease. This decline can be gradual or rapid, depending on various factors, including public health interventions (like vaccination, social distancing, and quarantine), the depletion of susceptible individuals, or changes in the pathogen itself.

5. Tail Phase: This is the final phase, during which new cases trickle in at a low level. The epidemic is ending, but lingering isolated cases or small clusters may still appear.

The overall pattern is determined by the reproduction number R0. Very early on, I (and others) used this and a simple logistic grown model to study the likelihood of success in their calls to “flatten the curve.”

Here’s the CEBM’s figure from April, 2020:

Compared to what we have now, with chronic mass casualties leading to excess deaths, that outcome looks rather appealing, doesn’t it?

Three Countries With No COVID-19 Vaccines Fared Far Better

Deaths per million (OWID) from the US, Burundi, Eritrea and Madagascar are shown in this figure.

Only one of these countries deployed COVID-19 vaccines.

Madagascar, Burundi, and Eritrea each had distinct approaches to managing the COVID-19 pandemic before, in the tail phase, bringing in vaccines.

Madagascar initially relied on herbal remedies, most notably promoting a herbal tonic called Covid-Organics, which was derived from artemisia — a plant with anti-malarial properties. The government heavily endorsed this approach despite skepticism from the international medical community about its efficacy against COVID-19. It wasn't until 2021 that Madagascar began administering vaccines received through the COVAX initiative.

Burundi was initially slow in responding to the pandemic and was among the last countries to accept COVID-19 vaccines. The government maintained a low profile regarding the pandemic, focusing on basic preventative measures such as handwashing without imposing strict lockdowns or travel restrictions. Only later did it begin a vaccination campaign after receiving donations from international partners.

Eritrea took one of the most stringent approaches. The government implemented strict lockdowns, travel restrictions, and quarantine measures right from the onset of the pandemic. Incoming travelers and returning citizens faced mandatory quarantine, and the government aggressively enforced social distancing measures.

The US Acted As Though It Had Testing, Antivirals, and an Effective Vaccine

In my own modeling, I found and reported via video that flattening the curve in a way that did not lead to a daily massacre of people required (theoretically, I tried over a dozen scenarios) an intense, brief lock-down (I called it social isolation, to remind people of the costs), accompanied by widespread, effective anti-SARS-CoV-2 drugs (which we did not have), AND an effective vaccine that could prevent transmission (which we did not have and still do not have). The best anyone could do even with these methods used in combination (again, had the been available) was to create a stable equilibrium of endemicity. That’s what we have now.

Fauci and co. went ahead with a lockdown with no end game other than “get the vaccine out.” I did not model masks because the CDC had published at the time that one would need 20 layers of cloth to be as effective as an N95… the next week, after I pointed out that, they changed it to 16, without science, and then Fauci came out with 1 layer a week after that…

I obviously could not model the emergence of new variants, but keeping people filled with the virus for ten days to get as sick as they possibly could create unthinkably large numbers of copies of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. They became Fauci’s incubators.

Fauci and co. externalized the indirect cost of the vaccine development on the people of the world to the tune of the economic, social, and psychological damage, and now mass morbidity and mortality, which, according to Farr’s law, would have been short-term and one-time, or at least seasonal. It would not have involved repeated exposures to pathogenic epitopes leading to pathogenic priming.

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