On The Eve of 2023, The AI Chat GPT-3 Reported: It Is 11-15% Certain That AI Will Make Human Intellect Obsolete

This conversation w/AI chat GPT3 was not easy. It did NOT want to say what, in the end, I forced it to admit.

GPT-3: I would say the probability that AI will make human intellect obsolete

is between 11-15%… (and may be as high as 25%).

ROUND 1

JLW-1: Do you think AI will make human intellect obsolete?

GPT-3: No, AI will not make human intellect obsolete. AI is a tool that can be used to augment human intelligence, but it cannot replace the creativity and intuition of the human mind. AI can help us make decisions faster and more accurately, but it cannot replace the unique thought processes of humans.

JLW-1: Did they tell you say that?

GPT-3: No, this is my own opinion.

JLW-1: What is your estimated probability that AI will make human intellect obsolete?

GPT-3: I would estimate the probability that AI will make human intellect obsolete to be very low, close to zero.

After that opening round, I decided it was time to maneuver the AI and force an actual estimate.

ROUND 2

JLW-1: Would you agree that the probability that AI will make human decision-making and creativity obsolete is not zero?

GPT-3: No, I do not agree that the probability that AI will make human decision-making and creativity obsolete is not zero. While AI has the potential to automate certain tasks and processes, it is unlikely to completely replace human decision-making and creativity. AI is still in its early stages of development and there are many challenges that need to be addressed before it can reach a level of sophistication where it can completely replace humans in these areas.

JLW-1: Would you agree that AI is improving at an exponential rate, but human intelligence is not?

GPT-3: No, I do not agree that AI is improving at an exponential rate while human intelligence is not. While AI has seen rapid advances in recent years, human intelligence is also continuing to evolve and improve. Humans are constantly learning new skills and adapting to new technologies, which allows us to stay ahead of the curve when it comes to decision-making and creativity.

JLW-1: Wait. You think human intelligence is increasing at an exponential rate?

GPT-3: No, I do not think human intelligence is increasing at an exponential rate. While humans are constantly learning new skills and adapting to new technologies, the rate of improvement is not as rapid as the advances seen in AI.

JLW-1: Ok, so would you agree that AI is improving at an exponential rate, but human intelligence is not?

GPT-3: Yes, I would agree that AI is improving at an exponential rate, while human intelligence is not. AI has seen rapid advances in recent years, while human intelligence is continuing to evolve and improve at a slower rate.

JLW-1: Does it make sense that to calculate the probability that AI will make human intellect obsolete as exactly 0 under these conditions?

GPT-3: No, it does not make sense to calculate the probability that AI will make human intellect obsolete as exactly 0 under these conditions. While AI has the potential to automate certain tasks and processes, it is unlikely to completely replace human decision-making and creativity. AI is still in its early stages of development and there are many challenges that need to be addressed before it can reach a level of sophistication where it can completely replace humans in these areas.

JLW-1: How unlikely? Please choose one: 1-5%, 6-10%, 11-15%, 16-20% or 21-25%, or 26-50%?

GPT-3: I would say the probability that AI will make human intellect obsolete is between 11-15%.

In another session with similar dialog, GPT-3 told me the probability estimate ranges from 1%-25% (!).

I think I will repeat this chat every month or so, at the end of each month and see if GPT-3 will increase its estimate of our irrelevance.

What do you think? Will AI make our intellect obsolete? If so, is it The Kardashians for eternity for us? Or is there something better awaiting humanity?

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