Moderna Canceled: How the U.S. Government Stopped Gambling
Actual scientific standards are now in effect
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) officially terminated its $700 million partnership with Moderna to develop and stockpile a vaccine for the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The termination included both the $590 million awarded in January 2025 to expand clinical studies to five additional influenza subtypes, and the $176 million granted in 2024 for late-stage development of a pre-pandemic mRNA vaccine targeting the H5 subtype.
HHS cited a failure to meet "scientific standards or safety expectations." For some, this might seem sudden or opaque. But for those who have observed the federal government’s evolving posture toward pharmaceutical accountability, it is not only expected — it is welcome. The rules of the game have changed, and they should have.
The Moderna Bird Flu Contract: A High-Stakes Bet
The Moderna contract was designed as a forward-looking investment in pandemic preparedness. H5N1, a highly pathogenic avian flu strain, has spread across poultry and cattle in the U.S., with 70 confirmed human cases to date — mostly in farm workers. The specter of a human-adapted H5N1 variant remains a legitimate concern.
The mRNA platform was once heralded as a fast-response innovation, and Moderna’s work was viewed as an opportunity to extend that speed to future threats. The 2025 funding built on prior investment and aimed to diversify protection across multiple influenza subtypes. But the underlying assumption — that speed alone should carry scientific confidence — is no longer sufficient.
This Is 100% to Be Expected
The cancellation should not be viewed as a failure of science, but as a course correction in regulatory standards. During the COVID-19 pandemic, government agencies tolerated loosened criteria: accelerated approvals, limited follow-up, and weak transparency. What followed was a growing distrust in public health guidance and an erosion of confidence in regulatory oversight.
The current termination reflects a broader shift: returning to rigorous, independently verifiable, and safety-focused evaluation. Moderna’s interim trial results may have been positive, but positive data alone — especially from mid-stage trials without longer-term outcomes — is no longer enough. Safety is a threshold, not a footnote.
It is not scrutiny that is the problem — it is the inconsistent application of scrutiny that has historically damaged public trust. With this cancellation, HHS signaled a new threshold: no program, no matter how politically convenient or commercially hyped, is above basic standards of proof.
A Shift Toward Scientific Integrity
Under the leadership of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., HHS has pursued a skeptical but sober reassessment of legacy vaccine strategies. Kennedy has questioned long-standing assumptions about mass vaccination as a default public health solution and has called for more stringent, unbiased scientific review.
Critics may claim this is ideology disguised as reform. But if outcomes are the measure, then canceling a poorly justified, preemptive vaccine program — especially in the absence of real-world transmission pressure — is the right move. It is not anti-science; it is anti-rubber-stamp science.
This does not mean abandoning preparedness. It means refusing to fund technologies that leapfrog over uncertainty with speed and slogans.
Setting a New Benchmark for Safety
It is no longer acceptable for agencies to greenlight vaccines or therapeutics without detailed safety data, long-term follow-up, and transparent communication. This contract’s cancellation sets a precedent: even high-profile, high-dollar programs must meet clear, replicable standards.
Unlike past episodes — such as the ongoing recommendation of COVID-19 mRNA boosters despite concerning safety signals — this moment marks a break from the double standard. No selective protection. No blind deference to major pharmaceutical brands. Moderna’s platform, like any other, must prove itself.
A Realignment of Public Expectations
Preparedness remains essential. But so does prudence. The decision to cancel this contract affirms that the public has a right to expect more than promises and projections. It affirms that investments in pandemic defense must be tied to reproducible science, not preemptive marketing.
The message to private sector partners is now clear: if you want federal support, bring uncompromised data, robust methodologies, and full transparency.
What Comes Next
Clearly, the next logical step will be to cancel the contract on current Moderna COVID-19 vaccines.
Congress should support:
Mandatory public release of internal reviews behind program terminations
Independent audits of all pandemic preparedness contracts
An overhaul of accelerated approval pathways to restore public confidence
Additionally, we should:
Promote diversified preparedness tools, including non-vaccine strategies
Reaffirm evidence thresholds for long-term safety and benefit
Encourage global cooperation grounded in open science, not exclusivity agreements
Conclusion: A Step Toward Scientific Legitimacy
The termination of Moderna’s bird flu vaccine contract is not an abandonment of pandemic preparedness. It is a necessary course correction. It affirms that precaution must be rooted in evidence — not speculation, velocity, or brand prestige.
For too long, the balance of power between pharmaceutical manufacturers and federal regulators has leaned toward industry speed and away from independent rigor. This cancellation reverses that imbalance. It restores the primacy of proof over potential.
This wasn’t just the end of a contract. It was the reassertion of science as a method — not a marketing tool.
James Lyons-Weiler is the President and CEO of IPAK, Editor-in-Chief of Science, Public Health Policy & the Law, and a lifelong advocate for scientific transparency and rational public health.
