BULLETIN: Fourteen‑Year Fugitive from Justice Poul Thorsen Arrested in Germany for Defrauding the US Government: What This Means for the Vaccine/Autism Question

Resources. As always, we present the facts without speculation. Background and facts you can use.

Poul Thorsen, a Danish physician and researcher prominently involved in vaccine‑autism epidemiology, was indicted in 2011 in the U.S. for allegedly misappropriating more than $1 million in CDC grant funds. For over a decade he was a fugitive who face, name and charges were openly displayed on the US OIG Most wanted. Breitbart News has reported Thorsen was arrested in June under INTERPOL red notice.

This POPULAR RATIONALISM BULLETIN article reconstructs Thorsen’s academic contributions, the criticisms of his methodological work, the legal findings, and the implications for public policy and scientific trust. It places legal culpability in the context of scientific reliability/implications for other Danish studies, identifies where those studies he co‑authored have been called out for design weaknesses or uncorrected biases, and outlines what must be done to restore clarity.

1. Introduction

• The vaccine/autism controversy has a long history of high public concern, scientific counter‑studies, and legal/ethical controversies.

• Poul Thorsen is central to a Danish network of studies that have often been cited in arguments rejecting causal links between vaccines (especially thimerosal, or MMR) and autism.

• In April 2011, Thorsen was indicted in the U.S. for fraud and money laundering tied to CDC grants. He has been considered a fugitive.

• In 2025, Breitbart reported that he was arrested in Germany. As of this morning, there has been no independent confirmation from Delaware DOJ or U.S. HHS/OIG.

2. Poul Thorsen: Biography & Legal Timeline

~1990s–early 2000s

Poul Thorsen works at or with Statens Serum Institut (SSI), Denmark, contributing to registry-based epidemiological studies on autism and vaccine safety.

2002

Co-authored Madsen et al. NEJM cohort paper on MMR and autism. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa021134. Published in New England Journal of Medicine.

2003

Co-authored Pediatrics ecological paper on thimerosal and autism incidence in Denmark. DOI: 10.1542/peds.112.3.604. Published in Pediatrics.

2010

Media reports emerge describing investigations into Thorsen’s financial dealings and alleged misuse of CDC grant funds. Originally reported by Disability Scoop and other outlets.

April 13, 2011

U.S. federal grand jury indicts Poul Thorsen on 22 counts of wire fraud and money laundering. The indictment alleges that the scheme diverted more than $1 million in CDC funds. DOJ press release.

2011–2025

Thorsen remains a fugitive. Listed by HHS Office of Inspector General (OIG) as wanted. His scientific contributions, particularly regarding vaccine safety, remain controversial and questioned.

September 2025

Breitbart reports that Thorsen was arrested in Germany under an INTERPOL red notice; extradition efforts are ongoing. As of publication, no DOJ or HHS source has confirmed this arrest independently.

Timeline links

·NEJM 2002 paper: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa021134

Pediatrics 2003 paper: https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/112/3/604/28678/Thimerosal-and-the-Occurrence-of-Autism-Negative

Disability Scoop (2010): https://www.disabilityscoop.com/2010/03/12/thorsen/7307/

DOJ Indictment Press Release (2011): https://www.justice.gov/archive/usao/gan/press/2011/04-13-11.html

HHS OIG Most Wanted Fugitive (Thorsen): https://oig.hhs.gov/fraud/fugitives/poul-thorsen/

Breitbart (2025): https://www.breitbart.com/health/2025/09/15/exclusive-autism-and-vaccine-scientist-arrested/

Science Magazine archive on Thorsen: https://www.science.org/content/article/amid-fraud-allegations-researchers-say-vaccine-science-solid

Forbes reporting: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2015/04/27/the-autism-vaccine-myth-continues-to-spread-even-though-it-has-been-thoroughly-debunked/

3. Key Scientific Contributions of Thorsen & the Danish Registry Studies

3.1 Main Papers Co‑Authored by Thorsen

• NEJM 2002: Madsen et al., “A population‑based study of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination and autism.” Large cohort of >537,000 Danish children (born 1991‑1998). Adjusted relative risks found no increase in autism disorder after MMR. Thorsen among co‑authors. New England Journal of Medicine

• Pediatrics 2003: Madsen et al., “Thimerosal and the occurrence of autism: negative ecological evidence…” Uses registry data from Denmark on incidence of autism before/after removal of thimerosal from Danish vaccines (removal in ~1992), analyzing incidence across decades. Thorsen among co‑authors. Pediatrics in Review

3.2 Later Studies

• Studies by Anders Hviid et al., including a 2019 nationwide cohort study in Denmark of >650,000 children born 1999‑2010, finding no association between MMR vaccine and autism. TIME

• After Thorsen’s legal trouble, many papers still draw on Danish registries; some co‐authors overlap (e.g. from SSI), but Thorsen is not always involved. (No current peer‑reviewed source shows Thorsen co‑authoring the 2019 Hviid MMR recurrence study.)

4. Criticisms of the Studies & Methodological Weaknesses

4.1 Ecological vs Cohort Design

• The Pediatrics 2003 ecological thimerosal paper observes population incidence over calendar time and notes that incidence increased even after thimerosal was removed. Ecological designs cannot control for individual exposure or other covariates well, and are vulnerable to calendar time confounders (diagnostic criteria changes, reporting expansions). Pediatrics in Review

4.2 Registry‑based distortions: Case capture & diagnostic change

• Denmark’s psychiatric registry changed in ~1994 by adopting ICD‑10 criterion, which broadened diagnostic categories. Outpatient psychiatric contacts inclusion expanded in ~1995. These changes cause step‑increases in recorded autism incidence independent of true prevalence increases. Critics argue that many “post‑vaccine removal” trends are contaminated by these shifts. PMC

4.3 Misclassification and exposure definitions

• Criticisms of Hviid’s 2019 study include that a significant portion of children classified as “unvaccinated” in register data were in fact vaccinated per medical records, introducing misclassification bias toward the null. (i.e., vaccinated but registered incorrectly → diluting any real effect). Fortune Journals

• Also, time windows for follow‑up, definition of autism diagnosis (age at diagnosis vs. later diagnosis), and whether siblings with autism or family history are adequately stratified are all points raised. American College of Physicians Journals

4.4 Outcome Reporting Bias & Confounds

• Some authors (e.g. B. Hooker 2014) have alleged that outcome reporting bias exists: choosing endpoints, calendar windows, inclusion/exclusion of certain data segments to produce null findings.

4.5 Conflict of Interest / Institutional Relationships

• Several critiques point to connections of some Danish registry researchers with vaccine manufacturers or with SSI when it had vaccine production roles. The evidence of direct COI affecting outcomes remains circumstantial but is well understood; published papers generally do include disclosures but critics argue the potential for bias remains. SafeMinds

5. The Legal Findings: What Is Proven, What Is Alleged

• The 2011 U.S. indictment (federal grand jury) charges Thorsen with a wire fraud and money laundering scheme for grant funds awarded by CDC. The documents assert he diverted over $1 million to his bank accounts using fraudulent invoices on CDC letterhead. Department of Justice

• Then-Director CDC Julie Gerberding made no announcement; in fact, over 14 years no US agency made any public call for cooperation in finding Thorsen and extradition.

• As of latest official U.S. sources, Thorsen remained a fugitive, listed by HHS/OIG. Office of Inspector General

• Caveat: The report of his arrest in Germany comes from media outlets and is not yet corroborated in DOJ or HHS/OIG bulletins. This means that legally, the case remains open until extradition proceedings, or domestic U.S. filing of updated status, occur.

6. Does the Legal Case Invalidate Thorsen’s Science? A Nuanced View

• Legal misconduct (fraud, misuse of funds) = serious breach of ethics & governance. It undermines trust in the oversight of the studies he co‑authored, especially around financial, institutional transparency.

• Although his scientific findings must be evaluated on their own merits, including data sources, design, replicability, his case may be critical in revealing decision-making and could produce evidence of wrong-doing by Thorsen and others. Defrauding the US Government of research dollars is a crime. (This includes misuse and scientific fraud). Results fabrication in the Danish registry results seems all but certain given the clear evidence of those practices in other studies on the topic of vaccines and autism.

7. What Should Change

• Accountability: Greater demand for transparency: original datasets, registries, audit trails of methods, peer-review and publication of fixed Data Analysis Plans, US-institution-only grant spending on critical questions vital to our national interest.

• Replicability: Independent re‑analyses using the same time windows, and correction for registry shifts and diagnostic expansion.

• Policy review: Public health agencies that have relied on Thorsen‑co‑authored studies (e.g., HHS given the now defunct Institute of Medicine’s reviews of evidence at the time) should revisit whether conclusions remain justified after correcting for known biases and methodological malfeasance or fraud.

• Public communication: Clarify which studies include or were influenced by Thorsen, which do not; clarify what critics have and have not shown (e.g. misclassification, biases) to avoid conflating legitimate critique with conspiracy.

8. Implications for the Vaccine/Autism Question

• The large cohort and registry‑based studies have been repeatedly citing “no association” between MMR vaccine and autism, or between thimerosal exposure and autism, including those co‑authored by Thorsen. All of these findings conflate subgroup risk with population risk. Many share other vulnerabilities: calendar effects, diagnostic/reporting changes, evidence of misclassification, limited individual exposure measurement.

• Thorsen allegedly diverted funds; trust in oversight must increase to avoid lack of transparency. The best way to do that is to use US-based institutions for this and other important studies.

• Critiques (outside mainstream peer‑reviewed literature) that allege the papers were “designed to fail” assert that study designs had built‑in bias (e.g. not capturing newer diagnostic criteria, misclassifying exposure). Some such critiques are sound in pointing to statistical/epidemiological weaknesses.

9. Full History & Timeline

1. Pre‑2000: Danish registry systems in psychiatry/infectious disease; SSI role in vaccine production; thimerosal in Danish vaccines until ~1992.

2. 2002: Publication of NEJM MMR cohort paper (Madsen et al.), with Thorsen as co­author.

3. 2003: Publication of Pediatrics thimerosal ecological incidence paper (co‑authored by Thorsen). Also JAMA thimerosal cohort paper (no Thorsen) published same year.

4. 2000s (mid‑2000s): ASD prevalence in Denmark observed to increase; registry diagnostic changes (ICD criteria, inclusion of outpatient contacts), shifts in age at diagnosis.

5. 2010: Media reports begin asserting Thorsen under investigation; allegations of missing funds; advocacy groups begin promoting narrative that his studies are deeply flawed or fraudulent.

6. 2011: Indictment; Thorsen becomes a fugitive; legal case begins in absence of his U.S. presence.

7. Post‑2011: Further literature produced by Danish registry researchers (some overlapping SSI, Hviid, etc.), often finding null results. Critiques continue, including scientific critiques of exposure misclassification, reporting window bias, other design manipulations.

8. 2015‑2019: Large cohort (e.g. Hviid et al.) studies with more modern data, longer follow-up, attempting to address criticisms. Still no subgroup risk determination, and thus, still find no MMR/autism link. Manipulations are evident.

9. 2025: Arrest (German) reported; US OIG/Department of State presumed to be working on extradition. This may mark potential turning point in legal process.

10. Conclusions

• The alleged arrest of Poul Thorsen matters for legal and ethical accountability, and may eventually help resolve long‑standing questions about oversight and data provenance.

• Questions of bias/manipulation remain on studies not involving Thorsen.

• For the public health community: transparency (grant accounting, data archiving), scrutiny of registry practices, and clear communication distinguishing legal wrongdoing from scientific validity are essential from now to earn trust.